Given we've only just hit the autumn equinox, it may seem a little premature to be predicting hiring activity for next year. Undaunted, however, we have the following long-range predictions for anyone who likes a little lead time.
M&A has been in a funk this year, but that should change. Citigroup is predicting a wave of hostile M&A. Credit Suisse is predicting an
M&A resurgence. We are predicting a rush of analyst recruitment. Come next year, senior recruiters promise that M&A hiring, "will pick up again."
2) ECM and corporate broking
Thanks to fees from follow-on rights issues from banks, ECM has had a good 2009. This is expected to continue in the months to come. RBS, for example, wants to raise 3-5bn. "Corporate relationships will be key in 2010," says one senior ECM headhunter. "There will be masses of underwriting and rights issues and a lot of corporate broking relationships will be up for grabs."
3) Fig and investment grade corporate DCM
Corporate bond sales globally have had a good 2009, exceeding $1 trillion for the first time, and surpassing the previous record set in 2007,
Despite this, recruiters say there's been comparatively little hiring. "A lot of teams cut back in the six months from September 2008 to March 2009 and still need to compensate for that," says Lee Thacker at Silvermine Partners.
Lloyds is seeking to build out a capital markets business and should contribute to the DCM enthusiasm.
4) Various sales desks
The anticipated excitement around IPOs, rights issues, and bond sales is expected to feed through to a need for sales people across both equity and credit markets.
"Everyone's trying to position themselves for all the investment banking work that's coming next year," says one cash equities headhunter.
5) Emerging markets businesses in London
It emerged today that Renaissance Capital is building its London team on the back of what it describes as, 'rapidly growing interest from major international investors towards the emerging markets assets,' and, 'huge deferred demand for investment on the part of emerging markets.'
Mike Goggin, managing director at emerging market recruiter Brookleigh Services, says demand for emerging markets expertise is already on the up: "We're seeing increasing demand from large global institutions in London and emerging market banks and asset managers which are opening here."
6) Hedge fund compliance
Demand for hedge fund compliance people could be huge in 2010. A report out today predicts that EU proposals to regulate hedge funds starting in 2012 could cost 1.2bn in the first year. If the proposals go ahead (which looks increasingly likely), expect funds to start engaging consultants to help mitigate their effects at the earliest possible opportunity.