As Dexia is backstopped by French and Belgian governments (again), banking leaders have been standing up at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch 16th Annual Banking & Insurance CEO Conference in London and saying what they think is coming next for their businesses. As finance blogger Ian Fraser points out, this is precisely the conference at which Fred Goodwin was speaking three years ago when RBS's share price plunged 35%.
The prognosis has been mixed. On one hand, Bob Diamond was adamant that BarCap can still meet its target return on equity of 13%. On the other, Stephen Hester indicated that some revisions might be required
Most interesting, however, was Josef Ackerman, who pronounced that Deutsche won't meet its €10bn pretax profit target and will make 500 investment banking redundancies (a mere 3% of the total headcount at its corporate and investment bank).
Ackerman also proclaimed that most of these redundancies will fall outside Germany. This may be because German banking remains relatively robust, but it may also be because European banks rarely seem to cut jobs at home. French banks are also making most of their necessary adjustments abroad. Hence, BNP Paribas has announced a 'regroupement' of its overseas activities in Paris and Brussels, and last week Credit Agricole said it was closing its MENA M&A operations and running them from Paris. The current is moving in one direction and it is definitely not towards offices overseas.
UBS has actually done WORSE than was expected. (Alphaville)
''The news of third-quarter profit is not as positive as it may appear at first glance because the gains UBS booked have nothing to do with normal business." (Dealbook)
There's no way it [a rogue trader] would have happened at UBS in equities, with the kind of culture it had, before the 2008 crisis." (Financial Times)
UBS will be firing some senior risk people very imminently. (City Am)
Dexia has €4.8bn of Greek exposure, and is heavily reliant on short term funding. (Financial Times)
Morgan Stanley shares fell another 7.7% yesterday, prompting Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group to say it remains committed. (Wall Street Journal)
James Gorman has sent a reassuring memo to employees about the market rumours. (Forbes)
Wells Fargo analyst Matthew Burnell says not to worry about Morgan Stanley. (Wall Street Journal)
Partners at Ernst & Young (E&Y) took home an average of 663,000 last year as fraud investigations and banking regulations swelled the accountancy firm's profits. (Guardian)
After its bankers in Jordan went on strike, HSBC has agreed not to make them redundant and to increase their pay 8% and add a cost of living allowance. (Telegraph)