Courtesy of Morgan Stanley, which has just issued a report on banks' recent performance, we can now shed a little more light on the winners and losers of the past three months.
Derived from Morgan Stanley's figures, the graphs below show Goldman Sachs was the big winner in Q2, substantially increasing its lead overall lead compared to Q1. Citigroup was the big loser.
JP Morgan gained in IBD and FICC, but lost out in equities. Bank of America/Merrill Lynch prevented further losses in market share with a strong performance in FICC. Deutsche Bank did well in equities, but lost out in its key fixed income market.
Morgan Stanley's analysts are predicting that Q3 revenues will be down on Q2.
Longer term, Morgan Stanley predicts the most successful banks will be so-called 'flow monsters,' with large market share in core flow products - credit, rates, FX, commodities or equities, allowing them to offset margin erosion. The monsters include Barclays Capital, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse and JP Morgan.
Market share, total revenues of investment banking businesses, Q1 and Q2 2009
Market share, IBD, Q1 and Q2 2009
Market share, FICC, Q1 and Q2 2009
Market share, Equities, Q1 and Q2 2009