Bonuses may well be atrocious this year. More jobs may well be cut - we understand Morgan Stanley is removing people this very week. And to make matters worse, salaries are allegedly falling.
Our compensation survey, undertaken at the start of this year, indicated that 44% of people who changed jobs back then were facing a reduction in pay. Financial News suggests something similar this week: senior headhunters have told its journalists some staff are being hired on salaries that are £50k below the industry standard.
If this is the case, we can't find any headhunters to verify it. All those we speak to are unanimous: salaries aren't falling. Bonuses are falling. Goldman has reduced its salaries for VPs and MDs (as we reported last year). But on the whole, salaries are static.
"Unless they're desperate most people are not going to move for a lower salary," points out David Reynolds at search firm Scott Reynolds. "We're still seeing a fair amount of flow, and haven't seen any salaries being reduced anywhere," says the MD of a broad-based financial services headhunting firm. "If anything, salaries are going to rise," he adds.
This being the case, and as a follow-up to our bank-by-bank salary guide from 18 months ago, what should you expect? This is what headhunters suggest (subject to the foibles of banks' hierarchies).
MDs will be very lucky to get: £301-330k
MDs should be very happy to get: £300k. (This is apparently on offer at Goldman, Citi and Morgan Stanley)
MDs should consider themselves normal if they get: £250-280k.
MDs will be hard done by if they get: anything less than £250k.
Directors will be very lucky to get: anything more than £225k.
Directors should be very happy to get:£200-225k
Directors will be normal if they get: £170k-200k
Directors will be hard done by if they get: anything less than £160k
Executive directors will be very lucky to get: anything more than £175k
Executive directors should be very happy to get: £151k-£175k
Executive directors will be normal if they get: £120-£150k
Executive directors will be hard done by if they get: anything less than £140k
VPs will be very lucky to get: anything more than £130k
VPs should be very happy to get: £111k-£130k
VPs will be normal if they get £90-110k
VPs should feel hard done by if they get: anything less than £80k.