Morgan Stanley's banking analysts have released some new reports on the state of the financial services industry in the first quarter. We alluded to them earlier in our suggestion that things aren't looking too promising for Deutsche Bank and Barclays' fixed income currencies and commodities businesses, but this allusion just scratches the surface of the matter. The reports also say that:
1. It's been a great quarter in M&A
2. It's been a great quarter in equity capital markets (ECM)
3. It's been a great quarter in European equities trading and an OK quarter in American equities trading
4. It hasn't been so great in debt capital markets (DCM)
5. It's been a bad time in FX.
FX trading volumes were down 30% year-on-year in the first quarter according to Morgan Stanley.
6. It's been pretty good in credit
Morgan Stanley estimates that corporate credit trading revenues were up 14% year-on-year in the first quarter.
7...And sort of OK in rates and commodities
After a difficult year in 2013, Morgan Stanley says rates trading revenues are up quarter-on-quarter, but "mostly down" year-on-year. Commodities revenues are "mostly up" in both time periods.
8. These are still harsh times in private banking
9. These are tough times at Barclays' investment bank (the excerpt below refers to Barclays specifically)
10. It hasn't been so hot in equity derivatives
"Equity derivative volumes in Europe and US are mostly down YoY but up QoQ," Morgan Stanley concludes.
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Time to preemptively escape from Barclays and Deutsche's FICC businesses?